A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk

by | Sep 24, 2019 | Literature, Epidemiology

A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals

Is it possible to know how much longer will you live? A recent study led by Joris Deelen from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Aging and P. Eline Slagboom from Leiden University Medical Center has caught the public’s attention for attempting to answer this prescient question. The authors analyzed circulating metabolites from 44,168 individuals and tried to predict the mortality risk of a person in 5-10 years.

Using highly sophisticated statistical methods, 14 biomarkers have been identified showing independent association with all-cause mortality. The accuracy of mortality risk prediction based on this biomarker panel was high: in 4 of 5 cases the 5- and 10-year mortality was correctly predicted, which is a marked improvement to conventional risk factors (AUC 0.84 compared with 0.77 for conventional risk factors such as total cholesterol or blood pressure). Interestingly, the majority of the 14 identified biomarkers are previously described markers for mortality; but this is the first study to show the enhanced predictive value when combined into one metabolic signature.

Using this knowledge of life expectancy, clinicians could make more informed decisions on patient treatments based on their blood metabolic profile. In the future, it could become possible to modulate metabolism towards increased longevity. If you are interested in studying metabolism or looking for a way to monitor the metabolic profile in your cohort study, please contact us.

Joris Deelen, Johannes Kettunen, Krista Fischer, Ashley van der Spek, Stella Trompet, Gabi Kastenmüller, Andy Boyd, Jonas Zierer, Erik B. van den Akker, Mika Ala-Korpela, Najaf Amin, Ayse Demirkan, Mohsen Ghanbari, Diana van Heemst, M. Arfan Ikram, Jan Bert van Klinken, Simon P. Mooijaart, Annette Peters, Veikko Salomaa, Naveed Sattar, Tim D. Spector, Henning Tiemeier, Aswin Verhoeven, Melanie Waldenberger, Peter Würtz, George Davey Smith, Andres Metspalu, Markus Perola, Cristina Menni, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Fotios Drenos, Marian Beekman, J. Wouter Jukema, Cornelia M. van Duijn, and P. Eline Slagboom, Deelen et al. A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals. Nat Commun 2019 https//:10.1038/s41467-019-11311-9